Welcome.
If you found this newsletter it means you already
know something most investors don't.
Corporate collapses don't happen overnight.
The warning signs are always there.
The debt builds quietly.
The vendors stop shipping.
The creditors start positioning.
By the time it makes the news —
The smart money has already moved.
That's what this newsletter is for.
Every Tuesday and Friday I do an autopsy.
We find out who saw it coming.
We find out who profited.
And we find out what to learn before the next one.
Let's begin.
THIS WEEK'S AUTOPSY
Saks Fifth Avenue. 157 years old.
Gone in 13 months.
This was not a story about a retailer
that couldn't keep up with Amazon.
This was a story about greed, bad timing,
and a debt load so catastrophic
It was over before it began.
Hudson's Bay Company borrowed $2.65 billion
to build a luxury empire nobody asked for.
They merged Saks Fifth Avenue with Neiman Marcus.
Two struggling luxury retailers.
Combined into one company.
Then loaded with debt.
The logic was scale.
The reality was a debt bomb.
Within months the cracks appeared.
Chanel stopped shipping inventory to Saks locations.
Then Burberry. Then Loro Piana.
When luxury brands stop trusting you with their product
the business is already over.
They just haven't filed yet.
Apollo Global Management saw it coming.
BlackRock saw it coming.
JPMorgan saw it coming.
They didn't save Saks.
They positioned themselves to own it.
$2.65 billion in debt converted to equity.
The lenders became the owners.
The vendors got nothing.
The employees got nothing.
The original shareholders got nothing.
The creditors got the keys.
THE LESSON:
Scale is not a strategy when the foundation is debt.
Two struggling businesses combined
do not become one strong business.
They become one larger struggling business
with twice the overhead
and twice the debt.
Watch who stops shipping.
That is your early warning signal.
Watch the full autopsy on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/@thewallstreetvulture
THE WATCHLIST
Three names I am watching right now.
These are not recommendations.
These are situations where the warning signs
from the Checklist are starting to stack up.
SPIRIT AIRLINES
Warning signs active: 7 of 10
Filed Chapter 11 in late 2024.
Ultra-low-cost model structurally broken.
Fuel costs, labor costs, and debt
don't mix well with $49 fares.
Watch the reorganization plan closely.
JOANN STORES
Warning signs active: 6 of 10
Filed Chapter 11 twice in two years.
Craft retail is structurally challenged.
The second filing is rarely the last.
Watch the lease portfolio.
RED LOBSTER
Warning signs active: 5 of 10
Emerged from bankruptcy in 2024.
Private equity ownership.
Debt load still heavy.
The restructuring bought time —
not a new business model.
THE VULTURE'S PICK
For every issue I share one tool or resource
I actually use it in my research.
Coming in the next issue.
— The Vulture
NEW ON YOUTUBE
The autopsy is live.
$2.65 billion in debt.
157 years of history.
Gone in 13 months.
Watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/@thewallstreetvulture
Haven't grabbed The Vulture's Checklist yet?
It's the 10 warning signs I check before every autopsy.
Free download:
https://www.thewallstreetvulture.com/the-vulture-checklist
BEFORE YOU GO
If someone in your circle follows the markets,
watches corporate news,
or just wants to understand how money actually moves
in a collapse —
Forward them this issue.
The Vulture finds them useful.
Next issue: FAT Brands owned 18 restaurant chains.
Then a CEO with federal fraud charges
decided to keep borrowing.
That autopsy drops Friday.
— The Vulture