Deck: The method behind every breakdown — and the tools on the desk.

People ask how I know a company is in trouble before the news does. The honest answer is unglamorous: I read. Specifically, I read the things most people skip.

Every autopsy starts in the same place — the filings. A public company is legally required to tell you, in writing, how much debt it carries, when that debt comes due, how much cash it is burning, and what its auditors are nervous about. The drama is almost never in the press release. It is buried in the footnotes of the annual report, written in language designed to be boring enough that you stop reading. I don't stop reading.

From there, the method is consistent:

The balance sheet first. How much debt, due when, against how much cash. A company can post good headlines for years while the foundation rots underneath.

Then the cash flow. Profit is an opinion; cash is a fact. A business can report a "profit" and still be quietly running out of money. The cash flow statement tells the truth.

Then the disclosures. Auditor warnings, "going concern" language, covenant waivers, refinancing risk. These are the smoke before the fire.

Finally, the outside view. I pressure-test my own read against independent analysis — the professional research platforms where analysts and contrarians argue the other side of a story. Hearing the strongest counterargument to my own conclusion is how I catch what I missed.

None of this requires insider information. It requires patience and a willingness to read what is already public. The warning signs are almost always sitting in plain sight. Most people just never look.

— The Vulture

For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.